THE NEXUS BETWEEN RENEWABLE ENERGY INVESTMENTS AND GDP GROWTH IN UZBEKISTAN: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM AN ARDL BOUNDS TESTING APPROACH (2005–2025)

Almuratova Nurlio‘lmasoy Naym kizi

Authors

Almuratova Nurlio‘lmasoy Naym kizi Student, Samarkand Institute of Agro-Innovations and Research

Keywords:

Economic Growth, Renewable Energy, ARDL Cointegration, Investment Multiplier, Energy Intensity, Uzbekistan 2030 Strategy.

Abstract

This study investigates the dynamic, long-run relationship between renewable energy investments (REI) and economic growth (GDP) in Uzbekistan utilizing annual time-series data from 2005 to 2025. Employing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach, the empirical framework estimates both short- and long-run elasticities while controlling for structural instability. The bounds test confirms a robust cointegrating vector between the variables, demonstrating that a 1% increase in renewable energy investments yields a 0.284% expansion in real output over the long term. Furthermore, the application of cumulative sum tests identifies a critical structural break in 2018, corresponding to institutional market liberalizations that amplified the capital multiplier effect within the domestic energy matrix. These findings offer empirical justification for the targets outlined in Uzbekistan's "Green Economy Strategy 2030" and Presidential Decree PF-60.

References

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Decree of the President of Uzbekistan PF-60. (2022). On the Development Strategy of New Uzbekistan for 2022-2026.

World Bank. (2025). Uzbekistan Economic Monitor: Accelerating the Green Transition. Washington D.C.

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