IMPACT OF UNEMPLOYMENT RATE ON GDP IN TOYLOQ DISTRICT: AN ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS

Xoshimova Sevara,Abduvakil Alimov,Urozaliev Elyor

Authors

Xoshimova Sevara,Abduvakil Alimov,Urozaliev Elyor Samarkand branch of Tashkent State University of Economics

Keywords:

Toyloq District, Unemployment Rate, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Econometric Analysis, Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) Regression, Vector Autoregression (VAR), Error Correction Model (ECM), Okun's Law, Economic Growth, Job Creation, Skills Development, Investment Attraction, Policy Recommendations, Forecasting, Economic Performance

Abstract

This comprehensive study examines the relationship between the unemployment rate and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Toyloq District over the period from 2010 to 2023. Utilizing various econometric models including Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression, Vector Autoregression (VAR), and Error Correction Model (ECM), the research finds a significant inverse relationship between unemployment rates and GDP. The results are in line with established economic theories such as Okun's Law and are supported by the works of notable economists like Blanchard and Leigh. The study provides detailed forecasts of future GDP based on different scenarios of projected unemployment rates, offering valuable insights for policymakers. Recommendations for economic growth include job creation, skills development, and investment attraction. The study also addresses limitations and suggests directions for future research, highlighting the importance of additional variables and more comprehensive data for robust analysis. This research aims to inform policy decisions to foster economic development and reduce unemployment in Toyloq District.